Less than the scariest headlines, more than zero, and very unevenly. The only honest answer comes from splitting the question by intent and by whether you get cited.

Start with the best longitudinal data. Seer Interactive tracked 53 brands, 5.47 million queries and 2.43 billion impressions from January 2025 through early 2026. Organic CTR on queries with an AI Overview bottomed at about 1.3 percent in December 2025, then rebounded 85 percent to 2.4 percent by February 2026.

The rebound is real, and it is still a penalty. Queries without an AI Overview click through around 3.3 percent, a gap of roughly 37 percent that is not closing. Zooming out, BrightEdge puts total click-through decline near 30 percent since the May 2024 launch.

Now the part that changes what you should do: exposure depends heavily on query type. Seer's analysis of 49,353 queries found AI Overviews trigger on 36 percent of informational searches, 8 percent of commercial ones and 5 percent of transactional ones. BrightEdge tracked ecommerce prevalence falling from 29 percent to about 4 percent, as Google protects Shopping units and ads on money terms.

So a store's product and collection queries are largely spared. The damage concentrates on the research content upstream: guides, comparisons, how-to-choose posts. Also note where it happens: roughly 81 percent of AI Overview triggers are on mobile, where the answer fills the screen.

Two distortions make your own dashboards lie about this.

First, impressions inflate. In Seer's October 2025 data, clicks stayed flat around 400 thousand while impressions jumped from 15.8 to 33.1 million. CTR collapsed because the denominator exploded, not because clicks vanished. A falling CTR with stable clicks is a measurement artifact, not a traffic loss.

Second, citation splits the outcome in two. Brands cited inside the Overview earn 120 percent more organic clicks per impression than uncited brands on the same query, and only 17 percent of citations now come from top-10 organic pages. Losing the click to the Overview and winning the click through the Overview are both happening, to different sites.

How to measure your own cut, in an afternoon. In Search Console, segment branded from non-branded, then split non-branded queries into research and buying intent, the same intent-split method that applies to collection pages. For each group, chart clicks and impressions separately, never CTR alone. Where impressions surge and clicks hold, you are being shown inside AI surfaces without being chosen; the fix is earning the citation, not rewriting titles.

Also remember AI Overviews are only one of two surfaces; AI Mode behaves differently, and the comparison between them matters for diagnosis. And whatever clicks remain are worth more per visit, which is why the endgame is tracking revenue by channel instead of mourning sessions.

The straight answer: expect roughly a third fewer clicks on informational queries that trigger an Overview, minimal direct impact on transactional ones, and a binary fork on every affected query where the cited source keeps most of what everyone else loses. Your job is to be the cited source.